The Role of Atmospheric Deposition in Delivering Nitrogen to the Chesapeake Bay: A Century of Change
Douglas Burns1, Ghopal Bhatt2, Lewis C. Linker3, Jesse O. Bash4, Paul D. Capel5 and Gary W. Shenk6
Pioneering studies during 1980s and 90s in the Chesapeake Bay watershed showed that atmospheric deposition was a major contributor of nitrogen (N) loads, providing 1/3 or more among all sources and a principal driver of hypoxia in the Bay. Reducing atmospheric N deposition later became part of efforts to reduce N loads to the Bay in a previously unprecedented merging of goals under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. Atmospheric N deposition has shown sharp declines since 1995 as the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act were implemented. Wet and dry deposition measurements at sites in the Chesapeake Bay airshed indicate decreases in oxidized N deposition of 60% to 72% synchronous with declines in oxidized N emissions during 1995-2019. Reduced N, however, shows contrasting patterns; NH3 emissions have likely changed little during 1995-2019, and wet NH4+ deposition accordingly has shown no trend. However dry NH4+ deposition has declined by 73% during this period. Dry NH4+ deposition is controlled in part by formation of NO3- and SO42- aerosols resulting in some asynchrony with NH3 emissions. A century-long atmospheric deposition N time series was developed for 1950-2050 using measurement-modeling fusion and projections based on clean air regulations. This time series shows a peak in atmospheric N deposition of 15 kg N/ha/yr in 1979, a slight decline by the mid-1990s, sharp 40% decreases during 1995-2019, and further decreases of 21% thereafter through 2050. These deposition estimates were compared with century-long watershed estimates of N loads from manure, fertilizer, and wastewater. Atmospheric N deposition was estimated to be 30% of the total N load to the watershed in 1950, reached a peak of 40% in 1973, declined to 28% by 2015, and is projected to further decrease to 24% by 2050. These data indicate the importance of atmospheric N deposition in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and highlight that implementation of the Clean Air Act has contributed to reducing nutrient loads and improving estuarine trophic status.
1U.S. Geological Survey, daburns@usgs.gov 2Pennsylvania State University, gbhatt@chesapeakebay.net 3U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, linker.lewis@epa.gov 4U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, bash.jesse@epa.gov 5University of Minnesota, capel001@umn.edu 6U.S. Geological Survey, gshenk@chesapeakebay.net