Power Sector Emissions and Generation Trends in the First Half of 2020

Kimberly Liu1, Justine Huetteman2, Michael Cohen3 and Charles Frushour4

EPA’s Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD) within the Office of Atmospheric Programs (OAP) collects detailed hourly power plant emissions and operational data for federal emissions trading and air quality programs affecting the power sector, including the Acid Rain Program (ARP), the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), the CSAPR Update and the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). In the first half of 2020, as compared to the first half of 2019, emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx), mercury (Hg), and carbon dioxide (CO2) fell by 31%, 23%, 23%, and 16%, respectively. This was primarily due to the decreased utilization of coal-fired power plants and a concurrent increase in natural gas-fired and renewable generation. While prevailing economic and regulatory conditions that affect the shift from coal to natural gas and renewables are largely responsible for the observed emission reductions, an analysis of hourly regional electricity demand in 2020 indicates a change in the pattern of hourly electricity demand in April and May, when stay-at-home orders for the majority of states in the US were most stringently in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The shift in hourly load was most discernable in the PJM Interconnection (a regional transmission organization that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in much of the Mid-Atlantic region), primarily in peak hours, and persisted even when accounting for the variation in weather across years. This analysis will provide an overview of general power sector trends, focusing primarily on the first halves of 2019 and 2020, before delving into a more granular analysis of hourly generation activity for any indication of pandemic-related impacts. Power Sector Emission Data used in this analysis can be found at https://ampd.epa.gov/ampd/.

 

1US Environmental Protection Agency, liu.kimberly@epa.gov
2US Environmental Protection Agency, huetteman.justine@epa.gov
3US Environmental Protection Agency, cohen.michael@epa.gov
4US Environmental Protection Agency, frushour.charles@epa.gov