Projected response of 94 tree species to changes in N and S deposition from 2005 to 2100 and the associated ecosystem services at risk.

Christopher Clark1, Jennifer Phelan2, George van Houtven3, Chris Davis4, Jana Compton5, Robert Sabo6, Ashton Hargrave7, Bill Jackson8, Quinn Thomas9 and Kevin Horn10

Tree species provide a range of important societal values, including timber for harvesting, carbon sequestration, and recreational enjoyment for hikers, backpackers, and hunters. A recent analysis on critical loads of tree species across the U.S. indicates that tree species respond differentially to atmospheric deposition of N and S, with uncertain implications on the future forest composition and the ecosystem services that these forests provide. Here we provide a first-ever estimate for the coterminous US (CONUS) on species level changes in relative abundance of the current forest cohort from 2005 to 2100 across 16 future climate and deposition scenarios. We then estimate how two final ecosystem service (FEGS) may be affected (i.e. timber production, carbon sequestration) and one intermediate ecosystem service which underpins many FEGS (i.e. forest biodiversity). We also explore individual services that are more difficult to quantify and estimate the directional effects for U.S. forests.

 

1clark.christopher@epa.gov
2RTI International, jenphelan@rti.org
3RTI Internatinoal, gvh@rti.org
4EPA, Davis.Christine@epa.gov
5EPA, Compton.Jana@epa.gov
6EPA ORISE, Sabo.Robert@epa.gov
7USFS, ahargrave@fs.fed.us
8Retired, bjackson28806@gmail.com
9Virginia Tech, rqthomas@vt.edu
10USAID AAAS Fellow, 3horns@gmail.com